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The easing back in China窶冱 growth rate is part of the story behind lower commodity prices. But it is not all of it. For the boom in commodity prices went too far. A considerable speculative element was involved. And, of course, the surge in energy prices came before the take-off of fracking in the US, which has since caused natural gas prices to fall by 60pc over the past five years. Here in the UK, if inflation starts to fall, then the benefits will be palpable. By about the middle of next year, average real earnings should be rising again. And by election time in May 2015, average earnings may be outpacing prices by about 1.5pc 窶 although they would still be 6pc down from their peak in 2007. |
